Watching the Microsoft/Yahoo! merger dance presents some curious permutations. There has been a lot of press about the deal, and rightly so. It's a (possible) merger that represents a fundamental shift in the structure of online business. However, one thing struck me about the clear "No" [1] signal from News Corp this week.
At first, I thought that a News Corp tie-up would be an obvious play, but on second thoughts, I wonder if Murdoch actually wants Microsoft to try to swallow Y! because he knows deep down that it's a fundamentally bad idea, and the end result would be a disaster. For example, what will Microsoft do with all of Yahoo's PHP? Port it to .Net? For Murdoch, that's great news, because it effectively takes 2 big online players out of the game, leaving him up against Google by himself. Whether or not that's a fair fight is another question, but it certainly makes the landscape simpler.
M@
UPDATE-2008-Feb-08: Ok, here's a different point of view. I could see that working.
UPDATE-2008-Feb-13: Or maybe News Corp will play: Yahoo talks to Murdoch: report. Interesting.
References
[1] News Corp Says "No Yahoo Bid"
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